I'm one of the few (it seems) that thinks the November Presidential election is going to be close. Very close. I've also heard many times that New Mexico will be an "important swing state". But I've always laughed at that idea. My November prediction was that the race would be decided by a bigger state with much more than New Mexico's five measly electoral votes, and probably long before we finished counting our ballots. But which one? Florida (again)? Ohio (again)?
I started tinkering with the pretty nifty 270towin.com
that lets you click on states to assign them to McCain or Obama. I used other sites as a reference, like electoral-vote.com
to get a feel for which states would be blue or red this November. The latter site predicts an easy democrat win by 60 electoral votes. My calculations were not so kind to Obama. Eventually I stumbled upon this unlikely but very possible nightmare scenario:
Electoral-vote.com classifies our state as "barely Democrat". In New Mexico in 2000, Gore defeated Bush by 366 votes. In 2004 Bush beat Kerry by 5988 votes. It is conceivable that in 2008, New Mexico might decide who the next President is by a state margin of less than half a percentage point.
Add to that the Republican shenanigans of 2000 and 2004 (see below), and our state's penchant for rumours of voter fraud (real or imagined), and it becomes a potential disaster for the 2008 elections.
If you've read the book Armed Madhouse
(New Mexico practically has its own chapter in it) you know about voter purge and caging lists. George Bush was elected twice because his machine knew how use the electoral system:
1. Pinpoint the swing state polling democrat required to win.
2. Find out which voter blocs and precincts are most likely to vote democrat.
3. Actively find a way to suppress all those votes.
4. Turn that blue state to red.
Florida in 2000
- Bush by 537 votes.
Ohio in 2004
- Bush by 118,601.
New Mexico in 2008 - _______ by ___? *gulp*
OK... here's the part where everyone tells me I'm just being paranoid (please!). See you in November!